Death of the GOP?

Is the Republican Party on its deathbed? 

Interestingly, a few years ago this question would have seemed silly. But today I think the question is a legitimate one that deserves serious analysis.

The answer is most likely very dependent on how the financial crisis is resolved. If President Obama’s stimulus plan works, it will mean a huge blow to fiscal conservatism. The days of Alan Greenspan and “Reganomics” will no longer be looked at with nostalgia. The Democrats will undoubtedly rub this in the Republican’s faces, Republican Congressmen who are currently in opposition to the plan will not be thought highly of. Obama will certainly be re-elected, and I would not be surprised if several more Democratic Presidents are elected after him. But if the plan fails, Republicans might have a chance at rebirth. The GOP use Obama’s failed policies as a campaign tool that would probably win them many seats in Congress and possibly the Presidency in four years.

However, the economy is not the only variable in this equation. Social conservatism, an extremely important tenet of the Republican Party, may very well be on its last legs. I am not suggesting that the movement is going to die out, but I believe that the majority of Americans will no longer consider themselves social conservatives or vote for an overly conservative candidate. The best example that comes to mind is former Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin, whose popularity rating was around 30%. Palin’s radically conservative views repulsed most Americans, particularly her anti-intellectual sentiments. However, the social conservative base rallied around her views, despite the fact that they are at odds with those of many other Americans. Also, immigration and globalization are rapidly changing the face of American values. Latino immigrants are more likely to be liberal and vote Democratic, increasing the liberal majority by a significant amount. Also, the GOP’s current leader, Michael Steele, called for numerous reforms as a part of his wants to make the Party more attractive to the average American. If he succeeds, he may end up killing social conservatism as we know it. (On a humorous note: Steele said he even wanted to make the GOP attractive to “one-armed midgets.”)

Finally, the GOP currently lacks any semblance of strong leadership. Michael Steele is essentially a figurehead, and I suspect that many conservatives will work against he attempts to give the Party a “hip-hop makeover.” On the other hand, a very dangerous individual’s influence is waxing, so much so that conservatives everywhere are apologizing for any negative comments they may have said about him previously. I am talking, of course, about Rush Limbaugh. Even Michael Steele was forced to apologize to Rush after calling him “an entertainer.” Rush is a radical social conservative, and one of the most hard-line right wing authoritarians I have ever seen. In the future, Rush may be a rallying point for conservatives, but the media’s denouncement of Rush may hurt his popularity in the country overall. In other words: though Republicans may rally around him, centrists and liberals will do everything they can to stop him.

So is the Republican Party dead? Not yet, but if Obama fixes the economy they may hit they lowest point in decades. Though I am a Democrat, I do not welcome the GOP collapsing: a one party system makes government far more efficient for my taste. A two party system offers just enough impediments to government to create a balance of limited government and strong government.