China: still a threat to democracy

Previously I discussed China being a threat to democracy because it refuses to address human rights issues and set a good example for the nations around it. But because of the economic crisis, shifting populations and some current events, China’s authoritarian threat is even greater than ever.

China recently pledged itself to “never adopt a Western-style democracy” (see here). Worse still, they have refused to accept any liberalization at all—instead, they vowed to strengthen the Communist Party’s leadership. I suspect the Communist Party will stay true to this statement—as a ruling body, they have little to gain by Westernizing.

The economic crisis will also affect the situation. The downturn will slow down China’s huge growth, causing many migrant workers to lose their jobs. This, as the BBC suggests, will cause social unrest and possibly protests. If this occurs, it will not cause the government to weaken but instead will provide an excuse for more human rights and privacy violations. If China’s economy suffers even worse than expected, they may increase the size of their military or resort to protectionism, which could seriously damage the many countries (especially the US) who purchase goods from the Chinese.

The fact that China possesses more than one-fifth of the world’s population will also come into play. China is very dependent on the rest of the world for food, and as their population increases this may come to hurt them economically and structurally. Remember the food riots in the Philippines last year? If a similar food shortage happened in China, much larger and much more severe riots would break out. This, too, would cause China to revert to an even more authoritarian stance. If the population problem continues to worsen, China may even go to war with some of the surrounding nations for resources, or at least threaten them until they give China what they want.

So how can the West—and the rest of the world—protect itself from the overshadowing threat to human rights and democracy that is China? Unfortunately there are very few options. Though China may be changing their economy to a slightly more capitalistic system, they are not liberalizing. Western nations cannot really threaten then militarily, as China possesses a considerably large standing army, and the UN cannot pressure China because it is on the UNSC. The only road to change may be though Chinese culture, which is becoming more and more Americanized. Hopefully this influence will permeate throughout Chinese culture and make it more democratic. With luck this will increase the pressure on the government to Westernize or possibly influenced the government directly. Beyond that, though, there is little the West can do to stop China. For the time being China is on the rise, and there is little the West, whose influence is fading, can do about it.