Pandemic time?

Tomorrow I will return to the Bush lexicon—today I have a more pressing issue to discuss: swine flu. Until a few days ago, the term was virtually unheard of, but now the threat of a global swine flu pandemic is all over the media. There are a few key questions about the possibility of a pandemic that I would like to address today.

First, what are the chances of swine flu becoming a global pandemic? The answer depends on two factors: how well we can contain the virus, and how contagious it is. It is already obvious how quickly disease can spread as a result of air travel—cases of swine flu have already been confirmed in the US, EU, and New Zealand. However, if hospitals follow adequate sanitation procedures, it is possible to prevent the disease from spreading to everyone. As far as the contagiousness of the virus goes, I believe we will just have to wait and find out—it will probably take a week at least for scientists to analyze the virus. But what is the bottom line? Are we headed for a pandemic? I believe the answer may be yes. We have already seen cases of swine flu all over the world, and there are undoubtedly more people infected than meets the eye.

Already several countries are attempting to close their doors to prevent the spread of this disease, such as Japan, China, Malaysia, and Indonesia, who have banned pork imports from Mexico and the US. Other countries will probably begin following in their footsteps, cutting off air travel to the Western Hemisphere. However, I believe that these efforts are mostly futile—in today’s world, it is almost impossible to completely isolate any one country from the rest of the world. Without a doubt, the swine flu will eventually enter these nations if it hasn’t already—between air, land, and sea travel, it is far to impractical to keep everyone out of a country.

Next—and perhaps most important—are we ready? Thankfully, I think the answer is “yes” here too. Over the past few years the world has been stocking up on anti-flu supplies in preparation for the expected bird flu epidemic, and we certainly have large quantities of anti-viral medicines like Tamiflu. However, we do lack a vaccine for swine flu as of right now, but that is not too much of a concern. Of course, this does not mean that we do not have to take action if swine flu becomes a pandemic, but we will not have to worry about the fall of civilization. As always, Third World countries will have a higher mortality rate than developed countries, and there may be serious issues in African countries if swine flu reaches there.

China will probably suffer the worst—it possesses several highly concentrated population centers—Beijing, Shanghai, and Hong Kong—that lack first-class healthcare or measure to contain the spread of disease. How the Chinese government will react to this new threat will be interesting indeed.

So, to summarize: I am not worried. Though swine flu may turn into a pandemic, the world is not unprepared for it. We can only watch and wait for further developments.