Federalists in space

When we think of space colonization, we think of stereotypical space-opera heroes, evil alien races, individualistic pioneer societies, and terrifying space pirates commandeering spaceships. Why? Because that is the image that classic science fiction drilled into our heads more than 50 years ago. Contemporary science fiction writers continued the tradition and kept writing about these Wild Wests in space.

However, I suspect that if classic SF legends like Isaac Asimov and Robert A. Heinlein were around today, they would portray space colonization very differently. I think that space exploration will not be like the pioneer-like picture painted by these authors—it will far more federal and centralized.

The main reason is the high cost of space travel, and the slow rate that its cost decreases.Obviously, space colonization will not exist until it becomes cost-effective—but it may not become very cost-effective for many years after that. Because of this, the average “Joe six-pack” or ingénue city-dwelling single mother will not be rocketing him/herself and family to start a colony. Instead, space colonization and exploration will have to be funded by large governments. This will mean that it will also be controlled regulated by large governments, unlike the pioneer societies of the past.

Secondly, the technology required to colonize other planets is immense. Again, the average person will not have the means or the money to create or even buy the necessary equipment. This is because all of the planets discovered so far have no breathable atmosphere, which suggests that there are few Earth-like planets in the galaxy. Thus, the necessary technology must be invented and built to create livable environments in these areas.

Next, recall that space travel and colonization will probably not be productive for many years. In the future, the world will probably have more federal governments than it does today (if not one world-controlling federal government), or corporations will have enormous political power (enabling them to initiate space travel). If this does not occur, space colonization will probably not happen, because in a less centralized society no one would be able to afford it. This federalism will determine how the colonies are regulated—they will be government-controlled and centralized rather than pioneer societies.

On a related note, governments would not want their colonies to become too independent. They would insure that the colonies would be unable to declare their independence by ensuring that they, not their colonies, control technology. This, however, is not necessarily a bad thing—not all governments will treat their colonies poorly, so there will be little need for them to exercise their power.

However, all this is probably for the better. It will mean that these colonies will progress more quickly and be more productive than if they were pioneer societies.

As for pirates in space…the chances of space marauders existing are very, very low. Most of today’s pirates do what they do out of desperation—for example, the Somalian pirates who stole Ukrainian tanks as they passed by on a cargo ship. But piracy in space would require huge amounts of funding, as a large amount of sophisticated equipment is needed. Also, space piracy may not even be possible—in order to travel to places that are light-years away, spacecraft would have to travel faster than light or “jump” from place to place—making piracy impossible. Finally, who would these pirates sell their stolen goods to?

To summarize—I hate to burst Robert A. Heinlein’s bubble, but it seems like the governors of colonies in space will be rich, well-mannered, elitist epicures rather than pioneer types or “average Joes”.